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When to pull the trigger

horseIn response to talk of bankruptcy as a better solution than a bailout, jgoods says you don’t shoot the horse you are riding.

He and I agree on the bottom line: the auto industry needs a complete overhaul. We both want to see the U.S. companies become competitive, and even lead, in the world of automotive innovation.

We agree that they’ve simply followed the easy money when Americans were in love with city dwelling monster trucks. In fact, I wrote a blog about that here. It’s true that the American public simply got what they were demanding and probably should accept some guilt.

However, it’s the responsibility of a corporation to plan for the possibility of future scenarios, rather than just hope a lot that things stay the same forever. That’s where the Detroit 3 have failed miserably.

The UAW hasn’t helped. The union has bogged down the industry with high labor costs and forced the Big 3 into paying unfathomable sums of money for health care and retirement benefits. While being good for the employees, it came at the cost of stagnant innovation and sub-par quality. That’s not good business.

It’s time to accept that the U.S. auto industry isn’t confined anymore to the United States. Those foreign transplants, Toyota, Honda and all the others, will have a significant impact on the shape of the industry here. We have to think bigger than our borders and accept the fact that organized unions can’t control everyone.

The U.S. automakers do need our support. And now that they’re being humbled and forced to play on the same field as the rest of the world, they’ll probably earn it. But that doesn’t mean all 3 companies have to survive by being bailed out.

Remember that horse? If he’s got broken a leg and won’t take you where you want to go, it’s time to shoot him. Even if you can’t imagine traveling without him.

Do you think all three U.S. auto companies can be succesful in the future? Let us know where you fall in this debate! 

-tgriffith

 



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Is the bailout just a band aid?

Wow, how about the pump-fake that ol’ Mr. Bush pulled on us all, huh?

On Thursday the White House was playing up the possibility of an ‘orderly bankruptcy’ for the Detroit automakers. Bush even said,

Under normal circumstances, no question bankruptcy court is the best way to work through credit and debt and restructuring.

Then the influence and pressure of the Big 3 and the UAW kicked in, who called the idea “unworkable and dangerous.”

bandaidNever mind the fact the majority of the Americans were against a bailout, as was Congress who voted not to bail out the automakers. Even the president was considering bankruptcy as the best option to allow a complete reorganization of the auto industry. 

Then something happened and Bush abruptly threw to the other side of the field. Maybe his decision was partly the influence of Chrysler’s desperate ploy of playing up their upcoming month-long plant closure; portraying themselves as victims because people weren’t buying their cars anymore. (If they were any other business they’d react by decreasing the size of their business, not whining to the government that they’re out of money.) 

President Bush’s $17 billion bailout does come with considerable restraints though, the biggest of which being the question of viability. According to the White House, “A firm will only be deemed viable if it has a positive net present value, taking into account all current and future costs, and can fully repay the government loan.”

If, by March 31, 2009, any of the companies are not deemed viable, the loans will be called and bankruptcy will likely result. Can GM or Chrysler achieve a “positive net present value” by spring and avoid having to give back the government’s money? I have my doubts.

This bailout seems like President Bush’s way of saying, “Hey, good luck President Obama. The automakers didn’t collapse on my watch, so now it’s your turn!”

Even though he believed it was the better option, I don’t think President Bush wanted to oversee a federally orchestrated bankruptcy process this late in his administration. The bailout option was easier and provided a nice band aid that would last until the next president could make the final decision. 

Do you think at least one of the Big 3 will still end up in bankruptcy come spring? Let us know by leaving your comments here!

-tgriffith



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Ouch! Unhappy Holiday News from Chrysler

chrysler-logo2The Chrysler Media site just posted an announcement that the company will “idle” all manufacturing operations at the end of the day Friday, 12/19, and that “impacted employees” won’t return to work before Monday, 1/19/09. The company claims it has lost 20 to 25% of its sales volume as a result of the credit crisis. Wonder whether this news could have any impact on the bailout announcement expected Friday. Stay tuned!
 
 



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